The effect of institutional governance on the planning process in urban areas under disaster risk: The case of İzmi̇r Karabağlar risky area

Urban areas under disaster risk, particularly in regions characterized by high seismic activity, require comprehensive and risk-oriented planning approaches. However, urban transformation processes in such areas are often hindered by inter-institutional coordination gaps, differences in administrative priorities, and the complexity of legal procedures. Consequently, planning interventions intended to reduce disaster risks often lack continuity and stability. This thesis examines a 101-hectare urban transformation area in the Karabağlar district of İzmir, which was designated as a "risky area" in 2012. The study critically evaluates the prolonged and inconsistent planning process of the area through an analysis of the development of zoning plans and their successive cancellations or revisions arising from legal objections, institutional disagreements, and public responses. The findings reveal that the absence of an institutionalized risk-sensitive planning approach has led to instability, limited implementation capacity, and significant delays in the transformation process. The research is based on spatial data analyses, risk assessment reports, environmental threshold studies, and official planning documents. The Karabağlar case constitutes one of the clearest examples of planning instability observed in disaster-prone areas, with six successive plan approvals and cancellations between 2012 and 2024. By linking the principle of "risk sensitivity" discussed in disaster risk management and resilience planning literature with the concepts of institutional governance and planning continuity, this study seeks to contribute to understanding the structural challenges of urban planning under disaster risk. In this regard, the thesis offers an original contribution to both academic literature and practical policy-making by framing planning instability in risky urban areas within an institutional governance perspective.