The effects of variability in climatic conditions on agricultural activities in The Mediterranean Region

In this study, the effect of variability in climatic conditions, on the Mediterranean Region was examined. For this purpose, the relationship between the El Nino Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, that affects climate variability on global scale, and the yield values of corn, cotton, wheat, olive and grape, which reflects the agricultural production in the Mediterranean Region and can be easily affected by the variations in climate, were investigated. Also in this study , the areas that will be able to grow in the Mediterranean Region of examined agricultural products were determined. For the study, covering the years 1970-2017 daily average, maximum, minimum temperature and daily total rainfall were provided by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. In addition to climate data, it were provided covering the years 1991-2017 crop production data of agricultural products by Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and Index (Nino3, Nino3.4, Nino4, ONI) of ENSO by http://www.noaa.gov/ and North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) by https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/ internet address. Firstly, temperature and precipitation conditions which limit the areas where agricultural products can grow and cause yield losses and by determining the phenological periods in which they are effective, the climate and index values used in the study were rearranged according to these periods. In order to determine the areas where agricultural products can be grown, regulated temperature and precipitation data raster layers were formed by IDW method. In addition to these layers, it were used the elevation and slope layers, and the areas where agricultural products can be grown, were identified, all layers according to special climate and topographic requirements of plants weighted overlay analysis by overlaying. According to maps obtained as a result of analysis, suitable areas where the products can be grown with areas where the production values obtained from TÜİK are high, were observed to be compatible. In order to determine the effects of El Nino Southern Oscillation on plant production, El Nino years according to ONI index by creating, in these years, variability of yield values and climate parameters in Mediterranean Region were investigated . Then, the degree of the relationship between the yield and climate values and the climate values and oscillations organized according to phenological periods were measured by Pearson's correlation coefficient analysis. The significance of the correlation analysis results was determined by the p value. As a result of the correlation analysis, significant relationships which changed between 0,40 and 0,60 were found among annual temperature with yield and Nino. In addition, during the years of Strong El Nino generally, annual total rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures are below average of many years. Average temperature and yield values are, below the average in 1991,1997 and above average in 2009,2015,2016.