Evaluation of flood risk potential using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information systems (GIS): Example of Isparta province Uluborlu-Senirkent basin

Turkiye has a very rugged and steep structure due to its morphological and topographic characteristics. After the irregular and sudden precipitation events observed in recent years, there has been an increase in the frequency of flood and flood disasters in this rugged structure. The study area is located on the Western Taurus karst belt, which is called the Lakes Region in the Western Mediterranean, in the Uluborlu-Senirkent basin. The study area has a high topographic structure covered with karst limestones. Flood and flood disasters have also been seen in the Uluborlu-Senirkent basin in the past years, and considering the current climatic conditions, it is likely that these disasters will occur after heavy rains that are very common. The main purpose of this study is to carry out a flood and flood risk analysis in order to be least affected by future floods and floods in the study area and to take necessary precautions. The results to be obtained as a result of flood and flood analysis can be used directly in disaster risk management studies. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) were used in an integrated way in stone and risk analysis. Six basic parameters, namely precipitation, slope, land use, soil, distance to stream and geology, were used in flood and risk analysis. In determining these main parameters, the basic features of the study area were taken into account. Main parameters and sub-parameters of these parameters were graded using AHP. As a result of this process, weight rating coefficients were obtained according to the flood and flood risk solids of all parameters. By using these coefficients, flood and flood risk analysis was made in GIS environment and thematic maps were prepared. As a result of the flood risk analysis, a flood risk map was created. Consequently, it was found that the areas with high topography in the southern region of the Uluborlu-Senarkent basin are at risk of flood disaster. This result, which includes the area where the flood disaster occurred in Senarkent in 1995 and 1996, confirmed the accuracy of the study.