Investigation of applicability of arima models to monthly flow datas of porsuk dam reservoir

Water is one of the most important needs of human life. The role it plays in maintaining vitality is quite important. Therefore, the correct use and planning of water resources is also of great importance. The existing water potential can be protected by the studies that will be carried out, and steps can be taken to improve and develop water resources by making forward-looking forecasts. In particular, through research and studies conducted with time series, forward-looking estimates can be made using a number of methods. Based on this, the aim of the study is to investigate the decency of the Box-Jenkins method, namely ARIMA models, to this series using the time series formed by the observation values of a single variable obtained at different times. The source used for the series, where the suitability of ARIMA models will be investigated, is the monthly flow data of the Porsuk Dam Reservoir in the Porsuk Basin, which is designated as the working area. Within the scope of the study, the applicability of the ARIMA models was investigated by using monthly flow data from the Porsuk Dam reservoir between 1973 and 2015. In order to make the time series stationary, the number of data set observations was reduced and experimental studies were carried out. As a result, the appropriate ARIMA model was established for the time series generated by monthly flowdata between 2005 and 2015, and it was concluded that this model could be predicted going forward and used to plan water structures.