The impact of the European Green Deal on Turkey's decarbonization activities

Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions constitute the fundamental component of anthropogenic climate change, which has become a global crisis. The accumulation of greenhouse gases at the atmospheric level has led to a climate change crisis, transforming it into a structure that threatens ecosystems on Earth and the right of future generations to live in prosperity. If this trend continues, the increasing frequency of environmental disasters will render the Earth increasingly uninhabitable. International cooperation-based agreements and regulations that carry global significance in the fight against the climate crisis play a critical role in preventing further harm to the planet before reaching an irreversible point and contribute to the recovery process. Considering that industrial activities are the most significant contributing factor to greenhouse gas emissions, climate agreements will lead to substantial changes in countries' production and international trade dynamics. In this study, the possible impacts of the European Green Deal, which includes advanced policies to combat climate change, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, a significant strategic regulation, on Türkiye's climate targets and decarbonization process are examined. In this context, in the first part of the thesis, the historical process and global effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are discussed, and in the second part, the introduction of the greenhouse effect and climate crisis to the literature, their acceptance and global studies are discussed. Theoretical models developed to explain the impact of human activities on the climate crisis and the results obtained from applied studies of these models are then explained. After establishing the theoretical framework and conducting a literature review, the analysis section of this study tested the relationship between CO2 emissions in Türkiye between 1990 and 2022 and the macroeconomic variables that determine them. The impact of selected macro variables on CO2 emissions was tested using the STIRPAT model using econometric time series analysis. The findings reveal that five out of the seven variables tested support the hypotheses of the study, while two variables yield results contrary to the hypotheses, and the possible reasons for these unexpected results are explained. In the conclusion and recommendations section, policy suggestions such as energy supply transformation, renewable energy investments, energy efficiency, and alignment with the CBAM through domestic regulatory efforts are presented. Key Words: Climate change, carbon dioxide emissions, European Green Deal, STIRPAT model, time-series analysis.