Uncertainty in futures studies concerning conceptual clarity

The concept of uncertainty is discussed in different disciplines as management, economics, engineering, sociology, psychology, and history, in futures studies, as well. Future-oriented assumptions generally encounter the lack of completeness, and additionally subjectivity of decision-makers. To minimize these problems in decision making, concepts, which are the main source of researchers, should be handled in a clear, formal, and good way. The purpose of this thesis is to review uncertainty in futures studies for conceptual clarity. The standpoint of this approach is the necessity of concept clearness as a condition for validity in theory construction (Wacker, 2004). The unknown character of the futures leads us to study the uncertainty in conceptual dimensions in terms of design-based foresight as one of the futures studies in the thesis for the Master Program in Business Administration. First, the theoretical and methodological background of uncertainty related to foresight is discussed. Then a conceptual framework is presented to the policymakers and corporations as well as the third sector for communicating the process leading to decision-making under uncertainty, Regarding formerly handled research, this study is helpful to deal with uncertainty via the broader perspective. Interdisciplinary point of view provides diverse choices for understanding and absorbing uncertainty. In addition to this, the historical analysis and discourse highlights the change in handling the uncertainty. Finally, this study models the methodology of the qualitative research perspective.