Individual pension system and macroeconomic stability

In today's world economy, pension systems have also been the most important guarantees for the economic stability of nations. The aging of the population, the deterioration of the asset-liability balance, the increase in the costs of health services, political interventions, economic fluctuations, inflation and unemployment have put the social security systems into trouble in almost every country. As a result of these crises, the private pension system, which is a complementary element to social security, was deemed appropriate for the solution of the crises and was put into practice. The Indıvıdual Pension System aims to maintain the welfare experienced by individuals during their retirement periods as well. The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship between private pension fund size and macroeconomic stability for Turkey. The analysis consists of two phases. In the first stage, macroeconomic stability ındex was calculated by using macroeconomic tors such as GDP (growth), unemployment, inflation, budget deficit and current account deficit through main component analysis. In the second stage, the causality relationships between Macroeconomic Stability Index and private pension system fund size were analyzed with the Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda Yamamoto Causality Test. The results of the study show that there is no causality relationship between the private pensiton fund size and macroeconomic stability. The results obtained from the study show that the past period private pension system fund amounts cannot be used in macroeconomic stability predictions.