Carbon sequestration and the calculation of its market value in South Sudan, Yata–Yambio afforestation area

Carbon sequestration underscores the vital role of land and forests as key reservoirs for carbon storage, and it is recognised for its cost-effectiveness in reducing CO2 emissions. However, the effectiveness of carbon sequestration can greatly vary depending on factors such as the age of the forest, tree species, geographic location, as well as the type of soil and forest. Tropical climates and their associated plant species are particularly adept at sequestering atmospheric CO2, often observing higher levels. Utilising forests and forest products as carbon capturers presents a financially viable and cost-effective strategy for mitigating atmospheric emissions. South Sudan boasts significant coverage of natural forests, plantation forests, and woodlands, accounting for approximately 30% of the nation's total land area. Teak (Tectona grandis) comprises around 3% of this forested area. The Yata Forest Reserve Area is situated 40 km east of Yambio Town, along the main road leading to Maridi and Mundri Towns in Western Equatoria State, South Sudan. This reserve has been officially designated as a central forest reserve, highlighting its vital role in preserving the region's natural habitat. According to official records, the reserve spans a total area of 7,331 hectares, with approximately 325.2 hectares allocated for the Teak plantation. Valued for its role in the furniture industry, plantation Teak also absorbs and stores carbon, making it an appealing option for South Sudan as it seeks to reduce GHG emissions. The research aimed to perform a comprehensive carbon inventory in the Yata Teak plantation forest, emphasising the crucial role of carbon sequestration in mitigating climate change. Additionally, it examined the potential market value of carbon sequestered through afforestation projects in the Yata area for above and below-ground biomass. For this purpose, the volume (V) and mean annual increase in volume (MAI) values of Teak plantations were calculated to find the yield value of the study area for ages 24 and 39, respectively. Then, the carbon sequestered in living biomass in Teak plantations was calculated using the method recommended by IPCC (2004) and LULUCF guidelines, while the carbon price was determined according to the international carbon market based on the ETS carbon pricing concepts put forth by the World Bank Group, influenced by factors like geographical location and temporal conditions, particularly aligning the analysis of the study with the regulatory framework of the EU ETS pricing systems. According to the results obtained, in the Yata-Yambio afforestation project, which spans 325.2 hectares in size, it was calculated that at 24 and 39 years of age, 95,017.54 and 115,534.44 total tonnes of carbon and their equivalent, 348,714.38 and 424,011.39 tonnes of CO2, were sequestered, respectively. Based on a ton of CO2 price of $61.30 in the EU ETS market for 2024, the total amount of CO2 value was assessed as $21,376,191.74 for the age of 24 and as $25,991,898.30 for the age of 39. This CO2 accumulation is evaluated as 1,072.31 tonnes per hectare for the age of 24 and as 1,303.85 tonnes per hectare for the age of 39, with per hectare per year values evaluated as 44.68 tCO2 and 33.43 tCO2 for ages 24 and 39, respectively. The findings suggest that Teak plantations can be an effective tool for carbon sequestration in the fight against climate change. Developing a robust carbon market in South Sudan offers a transformative economic opportunity. This potential not only promises new revenue streams for local communities but also promotes sustainable land-use practices that support global climate action efforts.