The circular economy development in Tunisia: A performance analysis

This research explores the relationship between Circular Economy Performance (CEP) and economic growth in Tunisia over 1992–2022, emphasizing comparative analysis of pre-Arab spring and post-Arab spring periods. The study makes key contributions: first, a comprehensive econometric analysis of CEP impacts on GDP growth in Tunisia using a multidimensional approach; second, a framework examining how regional political upheavals alter circular economy-growth relationships; third, incorporating human development and capital stock variables for holistic understanding of economic growth determinants in transitional economies. Using Ordinary Least Squares regression, the study analyzes how CEP constructed from four key indicators Renewable Energy Share (final consumption), CO₂ Emissions per capita, Energy Intensity (energy use per unit GDP), and Domestic Material Consumption per capita affects Tunisia's GDP growth alongside Human Development Index, Capital Stock, and Labor Force. The econometric model examines the comparative impact of these variables on economic growth in pre-Arab Spring (1992–2010) and post-Arab Spring (2011–2022) periods to understand how political transition and institutional changes altered relationships between circular economy practices and economic performance. While many studies have examined the relationship between CEP and economic growth in developed countries, confirming a positive relationship, this research applies the framework to Tunisia, where the Arab Spring introduced profound political and economic transformations. The study aims to determine whether circular economy practices contribute positively to Tunisia's economic growth and how this relationship evolved following the Arab Spring revolution. By constructing a comprehensive CEP index from the four environmental and resource efficiency indicators, the study seeks to quantify the economic benefits of circular economy implementation within the context of democratic transition in a North African developing economy. The analysis identifies which specific circular economy components demonstrate the strongest correlation with GDP growth and examines whether political transformation strengthened or weakened these relationships through changing institutional frameworks and policy priorities. Additionally, the study assesses complementary roles of human development, capital stock, and labor force in driving economic growth alongside circular economy practices during periods of political stability versus transition. Findings will provide valuable insights for policymakers in Tunisia and similar developing economies undergoing democratic transitions regarding the economic viability of circular economy adoption and resilience to political and institutional shocks. Keywords: Arab Spring, Circular Economy, Economic Growth, Performance, Political Transition, Tunisia