Conspiracy theories and democratic backsliding in Türkiye: Elite rhetoric, public endorsement, and the erosive dynamic

This dissertation investigates the role of conspiracy theories in the democratic backsliding in Türkiye. Rather than viewing them merely as signs of paranoia, it conceptualizes conspiracy theories as a dual-purpose mechanism: a strategic tool used by elites and a lens for meaning-making among citizens. The study employs a mixed-methods approach. A content analysis of nearly twenty years of parliamentary group speeches reveals that ruling parties strategically deploy conspiratorial narratives, especially during periods of political tension, distinguishing their usage from the more reactive rhetoric of opposition parties. A nationally representative survey complements this by examining the demand side, showing that education, religiosity, internet news consumption, political efficacy, and partisanship significantly predict conspiracy beliefs. These beliefs are strongly linked to a decreased emphasis on core democratic principles such as liberal and electoral norms. Finally, an online survey experiment provides causal evidence that even a single, brief exposure to a conspiracy narrative can diminish citizens' normative commitment to democratic values. Overall, the findings illustrate how the strategic supply and public demand for conspiracy theories create an erosive dynamic that systematically undermines democratic norms and contributes to the broader process of democratic decline.