The impact of tax evasion and risk perception on tax compliance from a behavioral economics perspective: A comparison between Türkiye and Germany

This study examines the effects of tax evasion and risk perception on tax compliance from a behavioral economics perspective: a Türkiye–Germany comparison. When traditional economic theories are insufficient to explain individuals' decision-making processes solely through logical choices, behavioral economics helps to understand tax evasion by taking into account decision-making mechanisms shaped by psychological, social, and cognitive factors. In this study, the driving forces of individuals in tax compliance and evasion tendencies were examined within the framework of risk perception, fear of punishment, ethical values, and social norms. Considering the differences in the economic structures, tax systems, audit and punishment mechanisms, and social values of Türkiye and Germany, the behaviors and risk perceptions of taxpayers in both countries were compared in detail. Both field research findings and quantitative data analysis, along with a literature review, were utilized. The results show that risk perception is an important element in understanding tax compliance. The perceived audit impact, the severity of penalties, and the probability of detection significantly affect individuals' attitudes toward tax evasion. In the case of Germany, it was observed that high tax compliance and strong risk perception reduce tax evasion, while in Türkiye, it was determined that economic factors, as well as social norms and ethical values, play an important role in shaping tax behavior. This study emphasizes that behavioral economics principles should be taken into consideration in the formation of tax policies and contributes to the development of more effective tax audit and incentive strategies by accounting for differences between countries. In addition, a better understanding of the effect of behavioral elements on tax compliance provides an important reference for increasing tax revenues and designing new policies to combat the informal economy