East-West versus North-South: The geopolitical analysis of the Aras Basin

The Aras Basin is a strategic region situated among key regional actors such as Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, shaping the geopolitical and geoeconomic balance of the South Caucasus. This study aims to comprehensively analyze the historical, geographical, economic, and political dimensions of the Aras Basin and its impact on both regional and global dynamics. The basin's location at the intersection of East-West and North-South land and water routes further enhances its strategic significance. Throughout history, the Aras Basin has served as a passageway for civilizations, functioning as a hub for trade routes and energy transmission lines. Notably, the TRACECA, Belt and Road, and Lapis Lazuli projects reinforce the region's role within international economic and political systems. The strategic importance of the Aras Basin is not limited to economic projects; it also influences a broad spectrum of geopolitical interests, ranging from China's energy security policies to Russia's strategies in the Caucasus. From a hydropolitical perspective, the Aras Basin represents one of the most crucial water resources in the region. As a transboundary river, the Aras holds significant economic and strategic importance for Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. However, the lack of a comprehensive water-sharing agreement complicates long-term cooperation among these countries and exacerbates regional tensions. In the hydropolitical context, the sustainable management of the basin's water resources is essential to preserving the regional ecosystem and ensuring a fair and equitable framework for transboundary water usage. In the ethnopolitical context, the Aras River serving as a borderline has led to the division of ethnic groups, particularly the Turkish population, on opposite banks. This situation has not only complicated cross-border interactions but has also weakened social ties and contributed to political tensions. The river as a boundary is not merely a geographical border; it also functions as an ethnic and cultural divide, shaping regional dynamics. The study places special emphasis on the regional and global impacts of the Zangezur Corridor. The corridor holds strategic importance in terms of connecting trade routes and ensuring the security of energy pipelines. However, it also has the potential to intensify regional competition and political tensions. For the economic integration of the region and the sustainability of logistic networks, ensuring the security of the corridor emerges as a critical factor. The research also highlights the environmental and ecological issues of the Aras Basin. Water scarcity, desertification, and pressures on the ecosystem pose significant threats to the region's long-term sustainable development goals. To address the environmental challenges of the basin, the study recommends the establishment of international cooperation and environmental monitoring mechanisms. Comprehensive recommendations addressing the current geopolitical and hydropolitical challenges of the Aras Basin have been formulated to ensure the region's stability and sustainable development. First, it is emphasized that a comprehensive water-sharing agreement should be established among the regional countries concerning the Aras River. This agreement should be based on principles of equitable use and guarantee the sustainable management of water resources. Taking this step is crucial for reducing hydropolitical tensions and enhancing regional cooperation. Reconfiguring borders in alignment with existing geographical features, particularly by tracing mountain ridges, could contribute to enhancing regional security and reducing competition over natural resources. While promoting environmental sustainability, this approach could also mitigate political tensions and offer long-term solutions. Furthermore, the security and efficiency of the Zangezur Corridor should be enhanced, and joint strategies should be developed to ensure the sustainability of regional logistic networks. Utilizing the corridor as a means to foster economic integration could significantly boost the region's trade potential. To address environmental challenges, environmental monitoring mechanisms should be established, and international cooperation should be encouraged to protect natural resources. Preserving water sources and reducing pressures on the ecosystem are critical for the region's sustainable development. Additionally, to enhance social cohesion among cross-border ethnic communities, cultural and social projects should be supported. Regional cooperation mechanisms should also be strengthened to ensure the security of energy and trade routes. Long-term strategic planning could promote economic integration and drive sustainable development in the region. All these recommendations aim to transform the Aras Basin into a hub of peace and cooperation, thereby permanently strengthening regional stability. In this study, the geopolitical significance of the Aras Basin is analyzed using interdisciplinary methods, including the consociationalist approach, concrete space method, progressive approach, and interpretive reflexivist method. Additionally, the study integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and historical analysis techniques to provide a comprehensive examination.