Effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firms' export performance, firm-based application

Foreign exchange rates, which express the value of the national currency in foreign currency, have become one of the most important indicators of the economy with the increase in international trade and economies becoming interdependent. In this study, in order to investigate the effect of exchange rate changes on the export performance of firms, a model was created based on 69 firms in 6 different sector groups with uninterrupted data in the ISO 500 list between 2005 and 2016, and coefficients were estimated by econometric methods. In the model developed in the study, export values of firms are used as dependent variable, exchange rate, value added and capital labor rate as independent variables. The data set was obtained from the Istanbul Chamber of Industry ISO 500 list and from the CBT electronic database. Whether the pooled model is suitable for the use of the data set was determined according to the results of the F-Test and Breusch-Pagan test, and then Hausmann Test was made for the selection of random or fixed effects model. Wooldrigde, Greene Likelihood and Pesaran tests were performed to test whether there are autocorrelation, horizontal cross-section and variance of variance problems between the sections. When the presence of at least one of these problems was detected in all of the panel data, the coefficient estimation was made using the resistant analysis method Driscoll Kraay method. Eviews and Stata statistics programs were used for all statistical tests. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Export, Panel Data Analysis, Driscoll Kraay.