Duzce province natural gas energy demand forecast

Natural gas emerged when organic compounds were separated from chemicals that had been going on for millions of years in the lower parts of the earth. The reason for the demand for natural gas can be considered as rapid population growth and changing climatic conditions. It is expected that the estimation will be obtained at the closest level in order to save energy and demand the natural gas from foreign countries as close to the real value. The accuracy of the demand forecast, the import of natural gas will make the investment in infrastructure in the country and the planning of expenditure more efficient. As a result of the research, natural gas demand forecasting in Düzce; Meeting the natural gas demand for Düzce is important because of the industrial center of Düzce and the rapid increase in its population. In this study, using EPDK (Energy Market Regulatory Authority) data for Düzce natural gas demand forecast, using ARIMA, TBATS and PROPHET methods; prediction has been made. The success criteria of these models were tested using MAE (Mean Absolute Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). According to these criteria, ARIMA and TBATS show high success, while PROPHET shows lower success than others.