The role of expectations in the economics

Since the Greek sculptor Pygmallion there has been a close relationship between expectations and events. Later, P.D. Cagan considered expectations as past expectations and likely to be realized in the past, and this situation took its place in the literature as Adaptive Expectations Theory. Another theory on this subject is the Theory of Rational Expectations developed by J. Muth, who stated that it is not enough to formulate expectations by looking at the past period and that current period information should be included. In the Ecological Rationality developed under the leadership of G. Gigerenzer, it is possible to make decisions by using non-rational short ways without using all the information available, but in this concept, it is emphasized that, unlike other expectation theories, various environmental situations should not be ignored. When she/he look at the last 20 years of the economy, it is seen that when the micro foundations of macroeconomic changes are formed, the preferences of the individual and the expectations that may lead to those preferences, as well as the effect of the policy makers on their success, are increasingly used. In this study, firstly the expectation is approaching and the situation in which the policies to be followed in the economy is shaped according to the expectations (expectations) of the economic agents are discussed theoretically and then empirically and this is done in detail in this thesis. Keywords: Adaptive Expectations, Rational Expectations, Ecological Rationality.