Elektrik piyasası düşünülerek üretim genişletme planlaması

The upward trend in electricity demand requires new power plant investments regularly. In this context, generation expansion planning (GEP) is needed for reliable supply of electricity demand considering economic and technical constraints and uncertainty conditions. The GEP studies carried out in this thesis are presented under three main viewpoints. First, a static mixed integer linear programming formulation is presented for the single-bus GEP problem which takes into account the uncertainties in load and wind power generation. A two-level programming technique is used to solve this problem. While the supply-demand balance is achieved by taking into account the uncertainties with Monte-Carlo Simulation method at the lower level, the main objective function and constraints are formulated with the investment decision variables at the upper level. Second, the effect of transmission line constraints on investment decisions is examined with the multi-bus GEP problem. While the aim is to minimize the expected production and curtailment costs by using the DC-Optimal Power Flow method in the presence of load and wind uncertainties at the lower level of the two-level model, minimization of the overall costs is provided at the upper level. Finally, the network-constrained stochastic GEP model is presented in the market environment. In the presented two-level model, the profit maximization of the investor is aimed at the upper level, while the market clearing problem at the lower level is performed under different load and wind power generation conditions. The effects of line limits and uncertainty representations on investment decisions, market clearing price and profit are examined in case studies.