Between the embrace and the boot: Analysing Pakistan's deportation of Afghans in light of geopolitics and ethnicity

This thesis conducts an in-depth examination of Pakistan's deportation of Afghan refugees, contextualized within the intricate dynamics of geopolitics and ethnicity. It investigates the causes behind the variation in Pakistan's policy toward Afghan refugees in the 1974-2023 period. Pakistan has moved from an open arms policy towards the Afghan refugees in the 1980s and 1990s towards an increasingly unaccommodating stance in the next two decades, reaching a peak with the mass deportations in 2016 and the ongoing deportation since 2023. Challenging influential extant explanations in the literature on the causes of refugee deportation, such as refugee rentier state theory and accounts focusing on political institutions, I argue that the reason behind the variation in Pakistan's policy toward Afghan refugees lies in the nexus between geopolitics and ethnicity. Specifically, I find that periods of increased geopolitical tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan and periods of increased ethnic tensions within Pakistan reflected in the increased threat perceptions of the Punjabi-dominated elites from the Pashtun-majority refugees and Pakistani politicians accommodating refugee demands, make refugee deportations more likely. Drawing from a diverse array of sources, including governmental archives, media reports, and scholarly literature, this study illuminates the nuanced and intersectional nature of forced migration, underscoring the confluence of geopolitical exigencies and ethnic tensions. The reflections stemming from this scholarly endeavor emphasize the imperative of integrating geopolitical and ethnic considerations into both policy frameworks and academic discourses, offering invaluable contributions to scholars, policymakers, and practitioners engaged in the realm of refugee studies.