Price movements in commodity markets and economic effects

Commodity prices have started to show significant volatility in recent years because of increasing consumption, depleted resources, the phenomenon of globalization and technological developments. The developments and changes in the world economy have caused the fluctuations in prices of commodities used as production, investment and consumption instruments in terms of width, size and duration, and these fluctuations is reflected in other markets and created changes on macroeconomic dynamics. This situation is one of the most significant changes seen in the world economy in the recent period. These fluctuations in commodity prices have turned into a factor that seriously affects the fragile economies of developing countries in particular. The effect of industrial input prices and fuel price on industrial production index was examined in this study to analyze the macroeconomic effects of commodity prices. Thus, how industrial industry index, which is one of the important indicators of economic growth, reacts against commodity price changes, has been tried to obtain results that will shed light on decision makers and policy makers. In this context, in January 2013 - January 2019 with the ARDL method using monthly data from the analysis was carried for Turkey. According to the results, the industrial production index moves in the same direction with the industrial input price index and in the opposite direction with the fuel price index.