Determination of black ice risk level in Erzurum city center and intelligent transportation systems

In settlements where winter conditions are severe, with prolonged periods of snow cover and a high frequency of frosty days, the incidence of accidents due to icing is increased. This situation has a deleterious effect on the number of deaths and injuries. It is therefore of great importance to implement solution-oriented anti-icing systems in settlements with winter conditions in our country in order to minimise accidents caused by icing, prevent traffic congestion and ensure passenger safety. A review of the traffic accident statistics in Erzurum, a city with severe and harsh winter conditions, reveals that Erzurum is one of the settlements that require attention. It is evident that Erzurum city center, which constitutes the study area, has a high potential for traffic accidents due to icing, given its climatic conditions and vehicle traffic volume. In the course of this study, accident points were considered in conjunction with data obtained from the General Directorate of Security and weather observation data obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology. Furthermore, the geographical conditions of the site were incorporated into the study, and the findings were interpreted in light of the data in both temporal and spatial dimensions. In the temporal dimension, accident hours and hourly meteorological data were compared to identify the value ranges that present a risk in terms of icing and accident potential. The months of January (69), December (49), and the hours 18:00-05:59 (107) are those in which the majority of accidents occur. The meteorological data indicates that accidents were concentrated in specific temperature, soil temperature, wind intensity, relative humidity, and cloudiness ranges. These ranges were -11.7 to 0.6 air temperature (146), -4.9 to -0.8 soil temperature (134), 0.5 to 2.1 wind intensity (111), 81 to 99 relative humidity (106), and 6 to 8.9 cloudiness (113). On specific days, it was established that the accidents occurred on the same day. The meteorological variables associated with these accidents include air temperature (0 to -8, 88%), soil temperature (-1.8 to -3.4, 70%), wind intensity (1.0 to 3.1, 70%), relative humidity (89 to 99, 88%), and cloudiness (6 to 7, 82%). Kernel density analysis and hot spot analysis were employed to ascertain the spatial dimension of the accident risk level. The findings indicate that the intersection of Saray Bosna Street, Atatürk Boulevard, Merkez Yönetim Street, Abdurrahman Gazi Yolu Street, and Erzurum-Ağrı Transit Highway (Ahmet Yesevi Street) is a significant location for accidents. The intersection of Eşref Bitlis Boulevard (İbrahim Polat Street and Atatürk Boulevard) in front of the R.T.E. Fairgrounds is also worthy of mention. The intersections of Selahattin Demircioğlu Boulevard, Stadium, and ETÜ-YÜTAM have been identified as locations with a high risk of accidents. Furthermore, within the scope of the study, suggestions have been made for the implementation of alternative systems to those currently in use internationally, with the aim of reducing the number of accidents caused by icing on the relevant routes.