Determination of financial failures by Altman Z score and gray related analysis: An application in metal main industry

In this study, financial data presented to public as annual report for the evaluation of financial performance of enterprises operating in metal main industry is analyzed and analyzed by various methods. Prior to the application of these analyzes, the concept of financial failure, the types of financial failure, the causes of financial failure and the measures that can be taken to prevent financial failure are discussed in detail. In the second part of the study, the concept of decision making, elements of the decision making process, decision making environments, multi-criteria decision making methods used in uncertainty environment, decision trees method which is widely used in determining the expected risks are explained with examples of return on investment. Then, the concepts of single criteria and multi criteria decision making are discussed and some of the current multi criteria decision making methods are discussed in detail. In the last part of the study, the data related to the financial performances of the companies operating in the metal industry are listed. Altman Z Score method was used to analyze the effects of the companies operating in the metal industry in BIST using their financial data for the years 2014-2018 based on the data presented in the public reports on their financial performance, balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statements. As a result of the analysis, the financial performance status of the enterprises operating in the metal industry in BIST was found to be in the "safe", "dangerous" and "gray / uncertain" area according to the Z Score ranges. For the next analysis, the gray relational analysis method was used to rank the financial performances of the companies operating in the metal major industry traded in BIST, which has financial performances, from highest to lowest. Keywords: Prediction Financial Failure, Altman Z Score, Grey Relation Analysis