Gayri safi yurt içi hasila, doğrudan yabanci yatirim ve net göç arasindaki ilişki: Gine üzerine ampirik bir analiz

This study examines the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and net migration in Guinea on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), within the framework of an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Utilizing annual data for the period from 1986 to 2022, the analysis evaluates both the short-term dynamics and the long-term equilibrium relationships among these variables. The findings highlight the crucial role of FDI in driving economic growth in Guinea, emphasizing its potential to stimulate development. However, the study also highlights the limitations of FDI in addressing critical structural challenges, such as widespread unemployment and regional disparities, owing to its significant concentration within the extractive industries sector. A descriptive statistical study from 1986 to 2022 demonstrates some clear trends. With some variation, the average GDP growth rate was 4.35%. At 2.26% of GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI) made up a quite small share; net migration showed a negative trend, meaning an unfavorable migration balance. With an average trade openness of 59.57%, the distribution shown here seems to be somewhat unusual. With an R² of 0.83, a modest standard error of 1.34, and a substantial F-statistic of 4.40 (p = 0.003), the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows strong explanatory ability. These results underline the important roles of FDI, migration, and trade dynamics in clarifying economic development in Guinea and confirm the strength of the projected model.