Geri döndürülemez yatırım modeli ve politik risk: Rusya Federasyonu'ndaki yatırımlar üzerine

This thesis analyzes the effects of the recent uncertainty caused by the sanctions that were implemented against Russia on the investment behavior of investors in Russia using an irreversible investment model with regime switches. With the period of uncertainty caused by sanctions corresponding to lower TFP and a sharp decline in oil prices, this study approximates the current regime of political risk by using low total factor productivity growth and oil prices as indicators and simulate different scenarios. The study uses periods with lower TFP and lower oil price periods as the "bad regime" and the higher TFP and higher oil prices as the "good regime". The results show that periods with higher probability of switching to or remaining at the bad regime correspond to lower and more volatile investment.