Güneydoğu Asya ülkelerinde ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicileri: Bayesci ortalama model yaklaşımı

Southeast Asia is a region with the recognized outstanding growth. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) which ranks the sixth largest economy of the world is a key success. The rapid economic growth motivates researchers to study the reason behind that growth. This study is done to determine the robust determinants and investigate the driving forces of the economic growth in Southeast Asian countries. Determinants are estimated by applying Bayesian Model Averaging approach through Bayesian Multiple Linear Regression. We used panel data of ten countries during 1975-2014 for the regression. The data illustrates the insight of growth trend for every country into increasing and declining trends. We, then, do the estimation and get the results for different three groups, the whole region, upward (CLMV), and downward (ASEAN founder) growth trends. The results suggest that foreign direct investment inflows are the main economic drivers of the whole region. This is because of the rich labor characteristics and the continuous improvement of total factor productivity. These, therefore, seem to convince the international investors investing in this region especially in production side. The growth determinants of the less developing countries or increasing growth trend group are increase in human capital and increase the rate of saving, While the declining growth trend group is total factor productivity.