Hareket masrafı altında en iyi portföy yatırımı
2012
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Advisor: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Serdar Süleyman Kozat
Abstract (EN)
In this thesis, we consider portfolio optimization problem in i.i.d. discrete-time markets under two different scenarios, where the market is modeled by a sequence of price relative vectors with log-normal distribution and with arbitrary discrete distributions. We provide novel approaches for both of these scenarios and introduce optimal portfolio selection algorithms that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. markets with proportional transaction costs. In the first part, we study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using ``threshold rebalanced portfolios'', where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the price relative sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the thesis. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets. In the second part, we first construct portfolios that achieve the optimal expected growth in i.i.d. discrete-time two-asset markets under proportional transaction costs. We then extend our analysis to cover markets having more than two stocks. The market is modeled by a sequence of price relative vectors with arbitrary discrete distributions, which can also be used to approximate a wide class of continuous distributions. To achieve the optimal growth, we use threshold portfolios, where we introduce a recursive update to calculate the expected wealth. We then demonstrate that under the threshold rebalancing framework, the achievable set of portfolios elegantly form an irreducible Markov chain under mild technical conditions. We evaluate the corresponding stationary distribution of this Markov chain, which provides a natural and efficient method to calculate the cumulative expected wealth. Subsequently, the corresponding parameters are optimized yielding the growth optimal portfolio under proportional transaction costs in i.i.d. discrete-time two-asset markets. As a widely known financial problem, we next solve optimal portfolio selection in discrete-time markets constructed by sampling continuous-time Brownian markets. For the case that the underlying discrete distributions of the price relative vectors are unknown, we provide a maximum likelihood estimator that is also incorporated in the optimization framework in our simulations.
Author
Dr. Sait Tunç
Institution
How to Cite
Sait Tunç (Master Thesis). Hareket masrafı altında en iyi portföy yatırımı, 2012, Koç University.
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