Forecasting methods measuring the capasity in hospitals and research

Health is an innate human right. Having a healthy life is a necessity for all human being and hospitals possesses a major role providing a healthy life time for people. There is an increase in admissions to healthcare services due to growing of the population, urbanization, industrialization, widening of the social security-rights and increased awareness of the people which eventually raises the work load of the hospitals due to its major role in health care service. The better understanding of the health as a primary resource for life and fulfillment of the spiritual, social and physical needs of the people increased the welfare of the society which ends up with increased demand of the health care services by the community. In this study, it is aimed to estimate the demand for health services by regression analysis which is one of the time series models, having regard to importance of the health sector mentioned above. In accordance with this purpose, angiography department of a training and research hospital's interventional radiology clinic is investigated, working and capacity utilization rates in work hours are calculated between (01. 05. 2015-30. 04. 2016 ). The extent of existing machinery and labor capacity from (01.05.2015 to 30.04.2016) with the patients and the transaction data demand, demand forecasting for the next year was calculated by using regression analysis method. The last 39 months' data are taken into consideration and the variables affecting this demand are identified. According to demand forecasting based on the calculations, it is estimated that present labor and machinery will not be sufficient to meet the demand of the next year. Therefore, increasing the number of the qualified personnel and equipment is proposed. If enlarging the machinery is not possible due to budget limitations, adoption of a shift work pattern is also suggest. Key Words : Capacity, Demand forecast, Demand forecasting for Health Service, Regression Analysis