Export dynamics and economic growth relations: The case of Turkey

The increasing competition between countries in the process of globalization generates different dynamics in terms of product and market. In particular, shaking of the current paradigm with the 2008 crisis and the transformation need of developed countries in the policies they implemented have increased the global competition. Rising competition conditions have led countries to re-evaluate their export-led growth hypothesis. At this point, export dynamics approach, which focuses on diversification, sophistication and concentration in terms of product and market, has come to the fore. The study is being questioned in Turkey with special export dynamics and methods of analysis of time series relationship between economic growth. For this purpose, firstly, the stagnation of the related series obtained from TURKSTAT, IMF and WITS data bases were tested with the extended Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. In the following series, Lee-Strazicich (LM) and Bai-Perron (BP) tests are conducted. Then, two structural VAR models were developed on product - market basis and economic growth and long term relations of variables were investigated. Granger causality test, effect-response analysis and variance decomposition results were obtained from SVAR models and the relationship between variables was interpreted. Then, Toda-Yamamoto, Toda-Yamamoto Bootstrap, Breitung-Candelon, Hatemi-Roca and Asymmetric Frequency Domain causality tests were performed to determine the causality relations of the variables in both models. According to the analyses, its found that the export dynamics are affected by the shocks in time, export dynamics have asymmetrical causality with economic growth and these relations change according to time and the determination of the effective export strategy should be determined according to the symmetrical and asymmetrical short-medium and long-term causality relations.