Assessing climate change impacts on water resources of Seyhan river basin by using swat model

Water resources play an important role in maintaining ecological functions and sustainable social and economic development. This is especially true for Mediterranean regions where climate change has a major impact on water resources such as the Seyhan basin. This study was conducted to evaluate the future of climate change, impacts on water resources of the Seyhan basin by using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm has been applied for model calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis. The monthly streamflow from the Seyhan basin was simulated. Streamflow measurements from the 1988–1997 time series and measurements from the 1998–2000 time series were used for model calibration and validation respectively. SWAT model performance calibration [correlation coefficient (R2) = 0.69, Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) = 0.63,] and validation (R2 = 0.70, NSE = 0.60). These results showed that the model created can be successfully applied to current simulations. Five bias correction methods were evaluated using IPSL-CM5 Model data for hydrological modeling. The best performing distribution mapping (DM) and Power Transformation in Rainfall (PT) were used for further analysis. Model results predicted that the average streamflow of the Seyhan basin will decrease by 65% and 85% for the next period (2045-2080) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.