The relationship between provincial special administration investment expenditures and the electoral calendar: The case of Gümüşhane province

This study examines the relationship between investment expenditures undertaken by the Gümüşhane Special Provincial Administration and the electoral calendar. The analysis covers the period 2008–2023 and combines budget data from the Gümüşhane Special Provincial Administration with electoral calendar and political indicators. The main objective is to identify the relationship between investment decisions and electoral cycles, and to assess the economic dimension through investment composition and real expenditure levels. Within the scope of the study, nominal budget and investment data were converted into real terms using a 2008-based deflator. The shares of road and water investments in the total budget, as well as real investment levels, were analyzed separately. The electoral calendar was examined using both “core elections” (parliamentary and provincial council elections) and broader election definitions. An annual time series approach was employed, and Newey–West standard errors were used to address autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity problems in the estimations. The robustness of the findings was tested using alternative election definitions, different indicators of political strength, and various estimation techniques. The results indicate that investment expenditures tend to increase particularly in pre-election periods. This increase is primarily driven by road investments, while water investments exhibit a more limited response to electoral cycles. Findings on real investment levels suggest that the observed increase is not limited to changes in budget composition, but also reflects an expansion in the overall volume of expenditures. Overall, the results point to an investment pattern that is sensitive to the electoral calendar and highlight the political dimension of public spending. This study contributes to the local government literature by analyzing the relationship between public investments and electoral processes at the level of special provincial administrations, and by jointly evaluating the economic and political dimensions of local public expenditures through the case of Gümüşhane.