The impact of the civil war on the Syrian economy 2011-2020

The study explores the significant distinctions between the prewar and damage to the post-conflict economies of Syria. Comparing the economic years of 2011 to 2020 with the prosperous economic and diplomatic years of 1980 to 2010 highlights the significant changes and adjustments brought about by the continuous wars. Before the eruption of the war, Syria had a thriving economy marked by an increasing GDP and strengthened international relations. There were coordinated efforts to increase exports, boost investments, and strengthen various economic sectors. But once the war began in 2011, it caused catastrophic consequences, damaging infrastructure severely, forcing a large number of people to flee their homes, and resulting in a significant death toll. The Economy, already beset by water scarcity and deficient infrastructure, suffered further devastation, precipitating a significant downturn in GDP, rampant inflation, and an abrupt devaluation of the Syrian pound. The war caused a deceleration in GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation surge, disrupting foreign investment and trade dynamics. The investment of several industries (agricultural, manufacturing, services, and public utility industries), energy, and population are affecting Syria's GDP. This paper studies how several indicators, such as investment, energy, and population, affect the GDP per Capita of Syria. According to our study, the war affected the GDP negatively, in which it reached a negative rate. The study utilized an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the impact of the Syrian war on the country's Economy. The findings underscore the war's significant and detrimental effect on GDP per capita, with the model estimating a long-term reduction of over 76%. Additionally, the analysis revealed that investment and population growth positively influence GDP per capita in the long run, while energy consumption has a negative impact. These findings emphasize the importance of considering a holistic approach to economic recovery in Syria, considering both the war's direct effects and underlying structural challenges such as energy dependence.