Türkiye-Russia rivalry in the Caucasus: The case of Karabakh Issue

The Caucasus has a special place in Turkish foreign policy due to its deep-rooted history and deep ties with the region. Azerbaijan is one of the countries that Ankara attaches special importance to in the region. Therefore, Türkiye conducts its Caucasus policy mainly through its relations with Azerbaijan. The development that determined the fate of the Caucasus was undoubtedly the Karabakh conflict, which started with Armenia's occupation of Karabakh and seven surrounding towns belonging to Azerbaijan. Russia is another country in the region with similar objectives to Türkiye. Moscow's desire to maintain its presence and influence in the region has led to Türkiye-Russia rivalry in the Caucasus. The cornerstone of the rivalry between the two countries in the region is the Karabakh issue. The aim of this study is to analyze the rivalry between Türkiye and Russia over the Karabakh issue in the light of the theoretical arguments of Neoclassical Realism. In this context, the study focuses on the parameters through which the rivalry between the two countries was shaped during the two Karabakh wars and the interim period between 1991-2021. Based on the theoretical propositions of neoclassical realists, the study analyzes the two countries' rivalry within the framework of systemic, unit and cultural level variables. Accordingly, the study concludes that there was a systematic rivalry between the two countries during the first and second Karabakh wars and the years in between. The focal point of the bilateral rivalry is the military and politics. In addition, it is seen that the limiting factors of Türkiye's role in the Karabakh conflict in some periods were its material power capacity and systemic factors. On the other hand, it is concluded that Türkiye's active policy in the Second Karabakh War was the product of a long-term preparation period. In this context, the study analyzes the information, documents and reports shared by the official authorities of the direct or indirect parties to the Karabakh conflict, as well as the discourses of the leaders and administrators of the aforementioned actors.