Insurance of catastrophic risks and reinsurance strategies, Türkiye february earthquake and possible Istanbul earthquake, Ankara province survey study

This thesis examines the effectiveness of Turkey's reinsurance strategies against high earthquake risk and other catastrophic hazards. Türkiye is a country with high seismic activity where the majority of the population lives in high-risk areas due to its location in the earthquake zone. Destructive events such as the 1999 Marmara and 2023 February earthquakes have led to economic losses that exceed the capacity of the insurance sector, and their effects have emphasized the importance of risk transfer mechanisms. While compulsory earthquake insurance and natural disaster insurance institution (DASK) practices are steps taken to address these challenges, optimization of existing reinsurance structures is still a critical need. In addition to traditional reinsurance methods, the study evaluates the potential of catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds), parametric insurance and other alternative risk transfer mechanisms. It is suggested that these instruments can increase Turkey's financial resilience by spreading its earthquake risks to international capital markets. The thesis comparatively analyzes the reinsurance practices of countries with similar sound-mix risks, such as Japan, Mexico and New Zealand, and reveals the lessons that can be learned from these experiences. In particular, successful examples of public-private partnerships, pool systems and layered approaches are examined. It is shown that in order to increase Türkiye's earthquake reinsurance capacity, the risk modeling infrastructure should be developed, data quality should be improved and the regulatory framework should be strengthened. In addition, the optimization of risk-based pricing coverage structures emphasizes the importance of reinsurance programs. As a result, the thesis proposes an integrated framework to increase the effectiveness of reinsurance strategies in the management of catastrophic risks in Türkiye. It includes the expansion of reinsurance capacity, the integration of alternative risk transfer mechanisms and the coordination of reinsurance strategies with risk reduction efforts. The proposed strategies can reduce the financial impacts of future earthquakes, increase the resilience of the insurance sector and contribute to a risk management approach that covers all segments of society.