Turkish foreign policy during the Gulf War: An analysis from the perspective of neoclassical realism

This study aims to analyze Turkey's foreign policy during the 1990–1991 Gulf War through the theoretical lens of neoclassical realism. Neoclassical realism examines state foreign policy behavior not only by considering the distribution of power in the international system but also by incorporating factors such as domestic political dynamics, leader perceptions, and state capacity. Accordingly, this thesis offers a multi-dimensional examination of Turkey's stance toward the Gulf War at both the systemic level (the post-Cold War balance of power, the influence of the US-led coalition) and the unit level (Turgut Özal's leadership, the role of the military and bureaucracy, and the effect of public opinion). The findings of the research reveal that Turkey deviated from its traditional cautious foreign policy line and adopted a more proactive and risk-taking approach. Specifically, President Turgut Özal's leadership style highlighted the interaction between systemic pressures and internal dynamics in Turkish foreign policy. However, reservations within the military and bureaucracy, economic concerns, and public opinion pressures emerged as constraining factors in the foreign policy decision-making processes. In this context, the Gulf War period demonstrates how decision-maker perceptions, state capacity, and societal factors, alongside systemic conditions, played a formative role in Turkey's foreign policy formulation. In conclusion, Turkey's experience during the Gulf War confirms that neoclassical realism provides a powerful analytical tool for explaining the foreign policies of middle-sized states. This study demonstrates that Turkey's foreign policy orientations during the war must be evaluated not only through the lens of the balance of power but also in conjunction with internal political, economic, and societal dynamics. Keywords: Neoclassical Realism, Turkey, Gulf War, Foreign Policy, Leader Perception, Domestic Political Dynamics.