Determining the two-year incidence of coronary event and death risk in people aged 65-74 years with known risk score for coronary heart disease

INTRODUCTION and OBJECTIVES: Coronary heart disease(CHD) and stroke are the most important and also preventable causes of death in the world. The rise in the elderly population will result in an increase of CHD incidence and mortality; because of this situation, the necessity of community-based intervention will also increase. The objectives of the study are to determine two-year CHD incidence and death risk in people aged 65-74 years with known risk score for CHD (Framingham 10-year CHD risk score) and to evaluate the incidence of coronary event according to the level of CHD risk.METHODS: This is a population-based cohort study. The study population is 1382 people aged 65-74 years living in five districts in Balçova, İzmir. It was planned to reach entire population without sampling. The dependent variables of the study were coronary event and death. Independent variables were socio-demographic characteristics, Framingham risk level and CHD risk factors. Coronary event was defined as coronary heart disease or death from CHD. For analysis, Chi-square analysis, Cox regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and long-rank test were used.RESULTS: Prevalence of CHD risk factors was high in this study population, but the relationship between risk factors and two-year incidence of coronary event was not determined. Two-year incidence of coronary event was found as 3.8%. It was determined that the incidence of coronary event increases significantly as Framingham risk score increases. The relative risk was 3.18 for high versus low CHD risk level. In the study group, 20 people died within two years and two-year death risk was 1.5%. The risk of death was significantly higher among smokers.CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: In conclusion, in the young elderly the incidence of coronary event increases significantly as Framingham risk score increases. For the health of elderly people, risk factors for coronary heart disease which is the one of the major chronic diseases in the elderly, should be regularly checked and the risk level should be determined. Community-based interventions should be implemented to reduce CHD risk factors and high-risk individuals should be monitored.