Kredi derecelendirme notlarının ülke ekonomilerine etkisi üzerine bir inceleme: Türkiye vaka çalışması

The present study aims to provide a political economy approach to the sovereign rating concept, questioning the influence the sovereign ratings have on economies. The business and economics literature have regarded the rating agencies as significant actors of world economy, while frequently criticizing their failures. Taking these criticisms into consideration, this political economy explanation focuses on the political and economic implications of sovereign rating changes for countries and for this purpose, Turkish economic outlook between the years 1993 and 2006 is studied in light of the sovereign rating changes within corresponding periods. Turkish economy is considered in this study with regard to three economic indicators as: export records, foreign direct investment levels and capital flow; since these economic activities are arranged as a result of decisions that are influenced by the sovereign ratings. Moreover, the political environments within these periods of rating update and the policy changes are provided in this study in order to evaluate the political aspect of the rating influences. As a result of these analyses, this study argues that those three indicators do not have a general tendency to change in line with the rating updates; however, among the three, export levels are revealed to be mostly influenced by the sovereign rating changes. These implications suggest, that the impact of sovereign ratings is limited on economies and that the agencies should be considered only within the framework of information provision. In addition, some policy recommendations are presented in this study in line with the criticisms within the relevant literature.