Analysis of the success of the Fragile Five's monetary policies

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of central banks' monetary policies among the Fragile Five countries (Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, India and Indonesia). The study examines the causality relationship between these two variables using monthly inflation and interest rates data for the period 2006 M1-2024 M12. In the study, Hatemi J-Roca causality test and Breitung-Candelon frequency domain causality test are applied. According to the findings, Hatemi J-Roca test shows that there is causality between inflation and interest rates at different levels in the Fragile Five countries. The Breitung-Candelon test reveals that there is a causality relationship in Brazil, Indonesia, India and South Africa in the short, medium and long run, while there is no significant relationship at any frequency in Turkey. These results emphasize that there are differences in the effectiveness of monetary policies across countries and policymakers should take these findings into account.