Küresel fazla likiditenin Türkiye enflasyonu üzerindeki etkisi

In this thesis, I generated excess liquidity series for the United States, the United Kingdom, the Euro Area, Japan and Canada using the P-star model. Using these excess liquidity series, I analyzed the predictive power of global excess liquidity on inflation in Turkey.The results illustrate that co-movement of global excess liquidity series in the post 1990 period has increased compared to pre 1990 period. Additionally, using global excess liquidity as an independent variable in Turkish inflation forecasts produces more accurate results. The impulse response functions of VAR analysis also show how domestic variables respond to an impulse to global excess liquidity. I found that rise in global excess liquidity results in decrease in inflation in Turkey, appreciation of the Turkish lira relative to other currencies, and decline in the domestic money gap. An increase in global liquidity results in appreciation of Turkish lira against global currencies, which creates downward pressure on inflation in Turkey through the exchange rate channel. For future studies, the results from this analysis will be beneficial to economists because it highlights the importance of global excess liquidity for the Turkish economy.Keywords: global excess liquidity, predictive accuracy, P-Star model, inflation.