Examination of shoreline temporal changes and development of coastal management system

Delta coastal areas, together with their natural beauties and economic values, constitute one of the most important areas of us efor humanity. Low altitude delta coastal areas, where land and water environments are in constinous interaction, are one of the most rapidly changing landforms in the Word under the influence of natural process and anthropogenic activities. The temporal determination and continuous monitoring of these changes; are great importance in terms of delta coastal resources proctection, using, planning, accurate and effective management and sustainability. In this research, short and long term changes in the shoreline and their causes that occur Küçük Menderes Delta coastal were examined and the future position of the shoreline was estimated. In order to achieve this aim, orthophoto maps of different dates (1957, 1964, 1972, 1993, 2009, 2018 and 2020) were used and shorelines were digitized by taking into account the High Water Line (HWL) indicator. Using the Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE), End Point Rate (EPR) and Linear Regression Rate (LRR) statistical methods of the DSAS software, shoreline changes were analyzed. It was determined that a net accumulation occured 37.01 ha, the length of shoreline decreased by 172.17 m, the maximum NSM and SCE distance changes were 248.99 m and 302.16 m and the minimum NSM and SCE distance changes were -142.37 m and 2.98 m in the delta coastal area between 1957 and 2020 years. As a result of the change analysis, it was determined that the maximum EPR and LRR rates of change were 3.96 m/year and 3.65 m/year and the minimum EPR and LRR rates of change were -2.27 m/year and -2.19 m/year. It was determined that the coastal area of the delta was grown under the influence of natural process from 1957 to 1993 years, the growth in the delta area has stopped as a result of the effect of increasing anthropogenic activities and today, it is regressing from sea to land. As a result of the study, it was observed that both land to sea and sea to land changes occur in the short and long term shoreline changes of the Küçük Menderes Delta. It was observed that if the current conditions continue with similar effects, significant changes will occur in the delta shoreline in 2030 and 2040 years and these changes will substantially the delta geomorphology, ecology, hydrography and land use.