Makine yatırımında gerçek opsiyonlarla senaryo analizi Monte Carlo simülasyonu yaklaşımı

The real options approach and how it can be used in investment analysis in automotive sector is summarized. A real option attitude of mind that takes ideas from financial options offers a fresh perspective. Then six basic managerial options are mentioned. The investment can be deferred, switched, expanded, grew and staged with these options. Monte Carlo method is described and used for a solution method in this study. This approach captures uncertainty in modeling parameters and it is offered newly for option valuing in automotive supplier industry. Strategic investment decisions are very significant for the companies. One of the most important long term decisions for any business relates to investment. Investment is the purchase or creation of assets in order to have benefits in the future. By using financial resources to purchase a machine/ building or other asset is an important investment decision. That decision will bring profit to an organization after a period of time. True investment decisions are the only way for surviving and competing with opponents in the market. The best investment strategy must be discussed and applied for survival. Keywords : Investment decisions, Monte Carlo Method, Real Options