Investigation of macroeconomic factors impact on bank loans: The case of Turkey

Banking activities have an important role in the real economy and financial system. Perhaps the most important of the activities carried out by banks is bank loans. Bank loans lead the way in the fulfilment of the country's economic activities. At this point, it will be beneficial for many segments to determine which variables in the economy affect bank loans. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of macroeconomic factors on bank loans with the example of Turkey. In this way, it will be possible both to reveal the dynamics affecting bank loans and to offer suggestions for policy makers. Among the macroeconomic variables, money supply, inflation, interest rate, economic growth and exchange rate were included in the study as independent variables, while commercial bank loans were included as dependent variables. Unit root tests and distributed lag autoregressive models (ARDL) were used in the analyzes carried out using quarterly data for the period 2005-2022. It has been determined that in the long run, commercial bank loans are negatively affected by the interest rate and the dollar exchange rate. In the short run, it has been determined that money supply and interest rate have a positive effect, while lagged values of economic growth have a negative effect on loans.