An analysas of the impact of macroeconomac indacators on the BIST-50 index usang the GARCH-X model

In this study, the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the BIST-50 index, which is traded on Borsa Istanbul, is analyzed using the GARCH-X model. The primary objective of the research is to statistically examine the volatility of the BIST-50 index and to reveal the influence of external variables—namely the CDS premium, USD/TRY exchange rate, VIX index, and trading volume—on this volatility. Within this framework, the opportunities and risks presented by the market are analyzed and interpreted. Risk factors are associated with macroeconomic indicators and assessed using statistical methods aimed at capturing market volatility. The study utilizes daily data spanning the period from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2024. To facilitate a comparative evaluation of the period-specific effects of global and local economic developments, the dataset is divided into two sub-periods: 2013–2018 and 2019–2024. In addition to traditional ARCH and GARCH models, the GARCH-X model is employed to assess the effects of exogenous variables. The empirical analyses, conducted using the EViews software, indicate that the CDS premium, the VIX index, and the exchange rate exert significant and positive effects on market volatility, while trading volume emerges as an important indicator of market stability. The BIST-50 index stands out among other indices in terms of sectoral balance, the number of highly volatile companies, and the number of companies with low trading volume. Therefore, in line with the aim and scope of this study, the BIST-50 index has been selected as the most appropriate benchmark. Ultimately, the study seeks to reveal both the underlying causes of risk and the potential opportunities arising from market fluctuations through statistical methods. In addition to the conceptual framework, empirical findings are also presented, with the aim of contributing to the enhancement of financial literacy.