A research on analysis of investment decisions of apricot growers and risk evaluation in Malatya province

In this survey, the investment decisions of apricot growers in Malatya have been analysed and a risk evaluation has been made. The districts that have been included are Akçadağ, Central district and Darende which are providing more than 50% of apricot production in Malatya. In nine villages that belong to these towns, inputs have been taken using a questionnare from 159 growers who were determined by proportional sampling. In the research the farms have been examined according to the extent of apricot production area ( ≤ 25 decares, 26-50 decares and 51 decares ≤) and according to three towns in which the survey has been made. The research is based on the production period of the year 2013. In the analysis of the inputs, first of all, the socio-economical characteristics of the examined farms have been identified. After that, technological and economical aspects of apricot production have been examined. The average apricot production area is 26.41 decares in the farms that were checked. The number of trees for each decare in average is 9. The fresh apricot quantity taken from each decare is 877.26 kg, and quantity of dried apricots has been calculated as 197.12 kg. Average price of dried apricots is 5.70 TL/kg, and average price of fresh apricots is 1.52 TL/kg. Average gross production value taken from the apricots for each decare has been figured out as 1.607.43 TL. In those farms, average production cost for each decare is 975.29 TL, average net income taken from each decare is 632.14 TL, and relative profit is 164%. In the research, apricot investment -according to 5%, 9%, 10% reduction rates- has been found out as profitable in terms of net present value, internal rate of return, and measures of cost benefit rates. In the sensitivity analysis, it has been confirmed that in case of a 10% decrease in apricot production, the investment maintains its profitability. According to the Fuzzy Paired Comparative Method, the most important element that effects investment stabilities of the grower is apricot productiveness. According to the Analytical Hierarchy Process Method, the most suitable districts to make apricot garden investment is first Akçadağ with 34.21% weight rates, the second is Central district with 33.08% weight rates, and the last one is Darende with 32.71% weight rates. According to the likert scale, the most vital risk sources that growers face during the production of apricots are input price height (1.77), weather conditions ( 1.96 ), and irrigation conditions ( 1.97 ).