Middle power hedging in view of regional rivalries: The case of Bangladesh vis-à-vis India and China

This thesis illuminates Bangladesh's hedging as a Middle Power vis-à-vis Indian-Chinese regional rivalry since 2009, as expressed through India's and China's military and infrastructural supplies to Bangladesh. This rivalry will be analyzed by drawing upon some broader International Relations theories: Offensive Realism, Neoclassical Realism, Liberalism, and Constructivism. Like in other regions of the world, China is exerting its sphere of influence in South Asia, with a particular focus on Bangladesh. This influence has become more pronounced recently due to China's growing prominence as a competitor to India, primarily through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and through China's implementation of infrastructure projects in Bangladesh. However, as a would-be regional hegemon, India is coming face to face with China, specifically in Bangladesh, which India always considers under its sphere of influence. The main argument of this study is that Bangladesh's hedging as a middle power vis-à-vis Indian-Chinese regional rivalry can be explained by examining two levels: First, on the level of the international system and of its regional South Asian sub-system, Indian-Chinese rivalry creates both challenges and opportunities for Bangladesh. Second, on the Bangladeshi domestic level and especially under the influence of identity politics and collective memories, the potential benefits and costs of these systemic factors are weighed, leading to the adoption of hedging policies. This explanation is embedded into an eclectic theoretical framework that draws upon four major IR paradigms. The systemic component of this explanation is compatible with Mearsheimer's Offensive Realism. But Indian and Chinese rivalry over Bangladesh is also dependent on India, China, and Bangladesh's domestic factors, which Neoclassical Realism explains. Furthermore, despite scattered conflict and contention between India and China and, respectively, India/China and Bangladesh, and disputes over undemocratic rule, Liberalism's emphasis upon 'low politics' like economic factors can also contribute to the topic. Moreover, in line with Constructivism, the thesis argues that historical and philosophical roots and leaders' personal ideological and political orientations shaped elites' perceptions, thus defining Indian and Chinese foreign policies towards Bangladesh and Bangladesh's policy response to the India-China regional rivalry.