Mogan Gölü (Ankara) su seviyesinin CBS ve regresyon analiziyle modellenmesi

There are several global and local analysis methods applied to manage lake water and its environs. The main purpose of these studies is to determine convection capacity of lakes and to calculate water levels? proximity to convection capacity annually to see how it can approach or deviate. In this study, the purpose was to calculate possible changes in the water level with statistical model by using data taken from the Mogan Lake and to perform analysis for the data by Geographical Information Systems (GIS) methods.In this study, volume values of the Mogan Lake were calculated for the period of 2000-2010; and its 3D map was prepared by means of the GIS. In addition to the volume calculation, its water capacity for each elevation level was calculated to investigate the capacity of each elevation level in case of possible increase in the water level. Monthly changes in the water volume were modeled meteorological independent variables and regression analysis based on data generated from the organized maps to reveal the actual relationship among the parameters.As a result of analysis, it was observed that the monthly change in the water level can be explained by following variables: number of windy days, pressure, humidity, temperature values and precipitation amounts. All independent variables were found significant on the 0.10 level. Through the regression analysis, variance of the monthly change in the water level can be explained by 56%. Of the variables, while amount of precipitation has positive effect the water level, other variables have negative effect on it.Keywords: GIS, regression analysis, Mogan Lake, meteorological data, water level changes, basin management.