Power shift in the international system and Russia's offensiveness

This thesis examines the impact of power shifts in the post-Cold War liberal international order on Russia's offensive behaviors within the framework of the neorealist approach. In this context, it focuses on the wars in Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014, 2022-present), as well as military interventions in Syria (2015-2024) and Libya (around 2017-present), as examples of Russia's offensive behaviors. The research question is how and to what extent a shift in the current international order affects the offensive behavior of states. It makes a significant contribution to system-level approaches to understand states' preferences. This research analyzes the security documents of three great powers -the United States (U.S.), Russia, and China- and annual summit declarations of two international organizations – the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)- from 2000 to 2024 through the method of content analysis and demonstrates the power shift in the international system, bilateral relations among the actors, and threat perceptions. At this point, the thesis examines the extent to which the change in the system and its implications align with Russia's offensive behaviors. This thesis reveals that systemic dynamics, which characterize the transformation from American unipolarity to multipolarity during the period between 2000 and 2024, shape Russia's offensive behaviors. The multipolar international system provides a structural backdrop for states' offensive behaviors; the great powers can carry out these behaviors more easily since they are crucial actors for establishing and shaping the international system.