The role of cognitive and motivational factors in high school dropout

The primary aim of this study was to investigate the cognitive and motivational reasons for school dropout among 9th-grade students with high dropout rates. To achieve this, the study examined whether there are significant differences in motivational factors (future expectations, mindset, and academic self-efficacy) and cognitive factors (metacognition and academic delay of gratification) between students who have dropped out of school and those who have enrolled in 9th-grade education. Additionally, the study explored to what extent these factors predict school dropout. The sample for the study comprised 526 students who dropped out of school in the 9th grade from three different types of schools in Istanbul during the years 2020, 2021, and 2022 and 462 students currently attending the 9th grade in three different high schools in Istanbul. The data required for the study were obtained with the "Future Expectation Scale of Adolescent (FESA)," "Academic Delay of Gratification Scale (ADOGS)," "Academic Self-Efficacy Scale (ASES)," "Metacognition Scale," and "Mindset Scale." Data analysis was conducted using SPSS software, employing Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and Logistic Regression analyses. The study's primary findings are summarized as follows: The logistic regression analysis indicated that the independent variables in the model explained 44.5% of the variance in school dropout. The model achieved a success rate of 77.6%. Specifically, future expectations had a positive effect on school dropout (β = 0.46), metacognition had a positive effect (β = 0.775), academic self-efficacy had a negative effect (β = -0.711), and mindset had a negative effect (β = -0.905). Regarding significant differences, the analysis of future expectations scores revealed that students who had dropped out of school have higher future expectations than those who attend school. Examination of metacognition and academic delay of gratification scores showed that dropout students had higher means, although these differences were not statistically significant (p > 0.05). Conversely, the analysis of academic self-efficacy and mindset scores demonstrated that 9th-grade students had higher levels of academic self-efficacy and mindset than dropouts, which was statistically significant (p < 0.05).