A Study on the future scenarios of the international system with a focus on china: A mixed research approach

Tezin Başlığı: A Study On The Future Scenarios Of The International System With A Focus On China: A MixedResearch ApproachYazar Adı: Gökhan ÖzkanABSTRACTInternational system is a complex system of systems. Interaction of hundreds of economic,political, scientific, technological, military, legal and social factors affect its dynamics. It hasbecome more complex after scientific and technological developments. It is hard to analyze thiscomplex system. It is even harder to forecast its future. This study attempted to develop a modelby benefiting from Power Transitions Theory (PTT), Comprehensive National Power (CNP)concept, Power Index and scenario building to do that.PTT was used as theoretical framework. National power definition of PTT was improved byusing the CNP concept and by adding other variables. An index called Power Index, whichincludes 106 variables, was developed. Scenario building was used to determine several possiblefutures by identifying driving forces and uncertainties that lead the future in different directions.Critical uncertainties that shaped scenarios were identified as:1. China?s governance and economic growth.2. China?s scientific, technological development, and its capability to produce advanced weaponsystems.3. Russia?s governance and economic growth.4. Russia?s capability to develop advanced weapon systems technologically comparable to theU.S.?s systems.5. Nature of relations among countries.Twelve scenarios were determined. China was identified as the only country that could challengethe dominant nation, the U.S.