A synthetic approach to the holiday climate index for the Mediterranean coast of Turkey

Climate change has an impact on the comfort level of tourists visiting coastal areas. Researching these impacts is important for a more comprehensive understanding of climate change and for developing effective solutions. The study first derives the Holiday Climate Index (HCI:Coast, HCI:Urban, and HCI:Combined) in the Mediterranean provinces of Turkey for the 1976-2000 period. Second, it examines how comfort patterns could change during the 2026-2050 period using the RCP8.5 global warming scenario. Third, utilizing the derived indices, the effects of climate-related holiday comfort on the number of tourist arrivals as well as on overnight stays between 1976 and 2020 are estimated by panel data analysis. It is detected that the comfort level has a significant and positive impact on the number of arrivals and overnight stays of tourists. Besides, comfort levels are found to deteriorate in the 2026-2050 period compared to the reference period, 1976-2000. As the comfort conditions get worse, the number of tourist arrivals and overnight stays is expected to decline in the future. Since regional analyses of climate change, holiday comfort, and tourism activity are rare in the literature, the study intends to fill the gap in this area. It is envisaged that the results of the study can be very useful for tourists, tourism professionals, operators, other stakeholders, and policymakers.