Research of the spill quantity by the sea accident risk model (Marisk)

A risk assessment model (MaRisk) by using Monte Carlo method has been developed to define the probability and the risk of maritime accidents on Turkey. Accident archives of Undersecretariat Maritime Affairs Search And Rescue Department have been used. Accident data have been investigated statistically and compiled according to event type and fault type. Using the investigations accident probability distribution has been determined according to event type. Suggesting probable spill quantity due to an accident, accident risks have been determined on all zones in Turkey. Accident probability distributions and probable spill quantity due to an accident have been used on the calculation of accident risk. The presented risk distribution of the study using Monte Carlo method includes the probable accident distribution and risk according to event type of an establishment, zone or Turkey. Determined risk distribution explains probable spill quantity. Thus the degree of the precaution can be easily seen by the authority.