A model study on the determinants of crop production value in agriculture: The case of Turkey

The global epidemic of COVID 19 in recent years and the subsequent break in the food supply chain caused by the high tension between Russia and Ukraine brought the issue of food safety back to the agenda and brought along many discussions on the sector. Especially in recent days, the rapid increase in food prices in Turkey has triggered inflation, causing it to reach much higher figures. The aim of this study is to examine its effect on the crop production value in agriculture within the scope of 81 Level 3 regions in Turkey. While spatial statistical analyzes provide information about the spatial motif for each variable, on the other hand, spatial econometric models are used to detect the spatial effects in econometric models in which the relationships between variables are tested. In the study, spatial delay model and spatial error models, which are the basic spatial econometric models, were used. Traditional econometric methods have been taken as a basis in many studies on crop production value. However, the agricultural sector is known as a sector in which the spatial relationship is observed intensely. In this context, spatial econometric models were applied in the study to check whether the detected effect on agricultural production value is due to the neglect of possible spatial dependence. When the literature is reviewed, it is possible to say that the method used is the point that makes the study unique. According to the findings obtained in the research, it is seen that the energy consumption used in agricultural irrigation, total export rate, consumer price index, temperature variables affect the crop production value positively for 2015. In other words, there is a spatial relationship between regions. In 2020, it is seen that there is a "same-directional relationship-". When the two years are compared, the variable that most affected the crop production value in 2015 was the amount of energy used in agricultural irrigation, and in 2020, the temperature and total export value ranked first; It has been concluded that the energy consumption used in agricultural irrigation is the second most influential factor. Keywords: Level 3 zones, Spatial delay model, Spatial error model, Agriculture sector