The impact of technological dynamics on export performance: Panel data analysis on OECD countries

As a mechanism for producing knowledge, implementing and transferring technical processes and methods, technological dynamics determine in which areas countries will specialize in the axis of production and foreign trade and have an impact on the factor compositions of foreign trade. Therefore, technological dynamics have become the most critical determinants of export performance and country welfare. In this context, the effects of technological dynamics on export performance are investigated in the study. Indicators such as R&D expenditures, patent numbers, FDI, real effective exchange rate, fixed capital investments, which are considered as technological development dynamics, are introduced with their criteria; evaluations are made based on the data of OECD countries for the last 15 years regarding these indicators and their effects on export performance are revealed. In this study, the effects of technological dynamics on export performance are analyzed empirically with the panel data analysis method using the data of OECD countries with different development levels and whose share of high-technology product exports in total exports is over 3% for the years 2007-2022. Due to the high correlation between the number of patents and research and development expenditures among technological variables, two different models were established with the control variables remaining the same. Before estimating the models, the stationarity levels of the variables were examined with the Karavias Tzavalis unit root test, which is one of the structural break panel unit root tests. As a result of the applied tests, it is seen that 76%-77% of the changes in technological product exports can be explained by the existing independent variables in both models. The effects of R&D expenditures and REER on the dependent variable are significant in all models, while the effects of fixed capital investments and FDI vary from model to model. Significant results regarding the analysis were obtained, and the effects of technological dynamics on export performance were examined within the scope of the findings and policy recommendations were made. Key Words: Export Performance, OECD Countries, Panel Data Analysis, Technological Dynamics.